Sustainable development
2014
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Sustainable development
2014
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This has been yet another very difficult year
for the South African platinum sector during
which it has been confronted by ‘a perfect
storm' of challenges This has been yet another very difficult year for the South African platinum sector during which it has been confronted by ‘a perfect storm' of challenges. The crippling five-month strike across the platinum belt in Rustenburg comes on top of a subdued global PGM market, a continuing rise in unit costs and reduction in margins and productivity, and ongoing challenges around access to skills as well as critical infrastructure such as electricity, water and transport. In a country with one of the highest levels of inequality globally, where unemployment and poverty remain high, and where service delivery by local government has been slow, mining companies are facing heightened expectations from neighbouring communities for jobs and the provision of services. At the same time, the sector is facing an increasingly stringent (and at times uncertain) regulatory regime, greater pressure for more rapid progress on black economic empowerment, and growing demands for greater efficiencies and a more commensurate return by an increasingly weary investment community.
The losses caused by the strike have severely impacted all stakeholders: the already low levels of trust between employers, workers and government have dropped further; the desperate living and social conditions of many workers in some areas have worsened; and potential productivity levels have declined, threatening the viability of some shafts. In some areas, the dignity of the workforce continues to be undermined by the ‘master and servant' culture that has plagued the industry throughout the apartheid era.
The financial impact of the strike has been considerable: the industry lost R24 billion in reduced revenues, and across the industry employees lost R10 billion in wages (for some workers it could take up to five years to recoup lost wages), while many suppliers have seen their businesses threatened following the reduction in economic activity. The country as a whole has experienced a resulting drop in economic growth, reduced tax revenues and increased pressure on global investor confidence and South Africa's credit rating.
Finding lasting solutions to these challenges will require a collaborative partnership between business, government and labour, informed by mutual trust and respect. For this partnership to work effectively, each of the stakeholders will need to be willing to question some of the fundamental assumptions that they may have long taken for granted.
On 23 January 2014, AMCU formally embarked on a strike at Anglo Platinum, Impala Rustenburg and Lonmin. The strike was more than a conventional wage strike – in many respects it represented a clear campaign by AMCU to address some of the fundamental historic imbalances created by apartheid and the mining sector.
The emergence of AMCU as a majority union in the platinum belt, challenging the traditional dominance of the ANC-aligned NUM, has ushered in a new era in the history of industrial relations in South Africa. It has prompted the sector to reflect deeply, not only on the traditional conditions of employment in the mining industry, but also more broadly on the nature of the sector's business model. Although the strike has ended with a three-year settlement agreement signed on 24 June (see here), many of the systemic challenges underpinning the strike still have to be addressed.
Additional questions remain regarding the manner in which the negotiations have been conducted, the nature of the union rivalry, politicisation and violence that accompanied the strike, and the persistence of the majoritarian labour system.
Many of these issues are deeply rooted in the country's history and in the social problems that are a legacy of the migrant labour system. These challenges have been further exacerbated by the inequality between rich and poor, by the increasing costs of food, energy and water, and by the growing debt burden compounded by the exploitation of miners by unscrupulous credit providers. The combination of profound economic hardship and high levels of social and economic inequality, has given rise to communities and individuals who understandably feel increasingly helpless, frustrated and angry.
As the strike was playing out in South Africa, at a global level there remained continuing uncertainty regarding the future direction of PGM prices. Remarkably, despite the significant supply disruptions caused by the strike, this had little immediate impact on prices, suggesting a market that is in oversupply. This is seen to be a result of stagnant growth in demand, due primarily to reduced economic activity and the uptake in some instances of substitute metals, coupled with the existence of above-ground inventories and the increase in PGM recycling. The market uncertainty facing the platinum industry is mirrored across the mining sector, with mining companies around the world feeling the impact of volatile commodity markets, uncertain economic growth and an increasingly skittish investment community.
On the upside there have been some encouraging signs of an increase in PGM demand, with evidence of a recovery in car sales in the US and EU, and further growth in China and other emerging economies, accompanied by tightening and more widespread vehicle emissions standards. The Japanese PGM jewellery market has also begun to pick up, with 2013 indications roughly 5% ahead of the prior year and early 2014 sales continuing this trend. China seems mixed at the moment with 24 carat gold still dominating the jewellery space.
Without a significant uplift in PGM demand, a return to normal production levels could lead to a sharp reduction in PGM prices (or the continuance of current low prices), further impeding the ability of the platinum sector to deliver compelling financial and social return. Offsetting this scenario is the potential that future supply may be constrained due to delays in returning to full production, the recent reduction in capital investment in capacity, and the possible closure of less viable shafts.